{"id":720,"date":"2021-04-12T07:06:57","date_gmt":"2021-04-12T07:06:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/kalkinmaguncesi.izka.org.tr\/?p=720"},"modified":"2021-04-12T07:07:00","modified_gmt":"2021-04-12T07:07:00","slug":"covid-19-salgininin-dunya-ticareti-ve-deniz-tasimaciligina-etkileri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kalkinmaguncesi.izka.org.tr\/index.php\/2021\/04\/12\/covid-19-salgininin-dunya-ticareti-ve-deniz-tasimaciligina-etkileri\/","title":{"rendered":"COVID-19 Salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n D\u00fcnya Ticareti ve Deniz Ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na Etkileri"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-background-color has-text-color has-background\"><strong><strong>Dr. Sayg\u0131n Can O\u011eUZ<\/strong><\/strong><br><em>Uzman<br><em>Mavi B\u00fcy\u00fcme Politikalar\u0131 Birimi<\/em><\/em><br><em><em><a href=\"mailto:tuba.ozakcan@izka.org.tr\">saygin.oguz<\/a><a href=\"mailto:saygin.oguz@izka.org.tr\">@izka.org.tr<\/a><\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>&nbsp;<\/em><em>\u201cThe global shipping industry must be a key stakeholder helping adapt \u2018just-in-time efficiency\u2019 logistics to \u2018just-in-case\u2019 preparedness\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>UNCTAD <\/em><em>Secretary-General<\/em><em> Mukhisa Kituyi<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2020 y\u0131l\u0131, d\u00fcnya genelinde etkili olan Kovid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile pek \u00e7ok a\u00e7\u0131dan zorlu bir y\u0131l olarak geride kald\u0131. 2019 y\u0131l\u0131 Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019de ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan ve 11 Mart 2020 tarihinde D\u00fcnya Sa\u011fl\u0131k \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc (DS\u00d6) taraf\u0131ndan k\u00fcresel pandemi olarak nitelendirilen Kovid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131, 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda da d\u00fcnya genelinde etkili olmaya devam ediyor. B\u00fcy\u00fck Buhran, 2008 Finansal Krizi gibi d\u00fcnya tarihinde yer edinmi\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fck sosyal ve ekonomik krizlerin daha \u00f6tesinde etkilere sahip oldu\u011fu de\u011ferlendirilen Kovid-19 krizi, ku\u015fkusuz b\u00fct\u00fcn kalk\u0131nma politikalar\u0131nda g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nmas\u0131 gereken temel parametre konumunda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Salg\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fcnya ticareti ve mal ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 \u00fczerine etkilerini incelemek ve salg\u0131n d\u00f6nemini ekonomik a\u00e7\u0131dan daha iyi anlamak i\u00e7in deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve limanlar \u00fczerinden baz\u0131 tespitler yapmak faydal\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler Ticaret ve Kalk\u0131nma Konferans\u0131 (UNCTAD &#8211; <em>United Nations Conference on Trade and Development)<\/em> taraf\u0131ndan her y\u0131l yay\u0131nlanan Deniz Ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na Bak\u0131\u015f (<em>Review of Marine Transport<\/em>) \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n son raporu bu bak\u0131mdan \u00f6nemli veriler ve saptamalar sunuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Genel tespit ve e\u011filimler<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pandemi s\u00fcreci kriz a\u015famas\u0131nda ve sonraki d\u00f6nemde k\u00fcresel ticaretin ve tedarikin s\u00fcreklili\u011fini sa\u011flama konusundaki kritik rol\u00fc ile deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha fazla \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131karm\u0131\u015f durumdad\u0131r. D\u00fcnyadaki \u00e7ok say\u0131da uluslararas\u0131 kurulu\u015fun liman \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131 ve gemi adamlar\u0131n\u0131 korunmas\u0131, ancak limanlar\u0131n gemiler ve ilgili operasyonlar i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131k kalmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki tavsiyelerde bulunmalar\u0131 bunu g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir. UNCTAD\u2019a (2020) g\u00f6re 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda salg\u0131n ile etkisi g\u00fc\u00e7lenen olumsuz ekonomik ko\u015fullar, uluslararas\u0131 deniz ticaretinde %4,1\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe neden olmu\u015ftur. B\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesinin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir y\u0131l olan 2019 ard\u0131ndan gelen 2020\u2019de, uluslararas\u0131 deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczerinde \u015fiddetli bask\u0131 devam etmi\u015ftir. Bu geli\u015fmelerle beraber, konteyner ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda arz kapasitesinin halen art\u0131yor ve gemilerin b\u00fcy\u00fcyor olmas\u0131 da sekt\u00f6r i\u00e7in devam eden bir endi\u015fe durumundad\u0131r. Gemiler ve limanlara ili\u015fkin deneyimler, konteyner gemisi boyutlar\u0131n\u0131n muhtemelen zirveye ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir. Di\u011fer yandan, b\u00fcy\u00fcyen gemilere ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7ek ekonomilerinden limanlar de\u011fil ta\u015f\u0131yanlar yararlanmakta, verilere g\u00f6re ortalama gemi b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn %1 artmas\u0131 geminin konteyner ba\u015f\u0131na limanda ge\u00e7irdi\u011fi s\u00fcrenin %0,52 azalmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmektedir. Bu durum limanlar \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fck bask\u0131lar yaratmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Anahat ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131lar 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda salg\u0131n ve beraberindeki k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar nedeni ile olu\u015fan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck talep seviyelerini kar\u015f\u0131lamak i\u00e7in gemi arz kapasitelerini \u00e7ok yak\u0131ndan izlemi\u015f ve s\u00fcrece adaptasyon i\u00e7in bir tak\u0131m ayarlamalar\u0131 hayata ge\u00e7irme yoluna gitmi\u015ftir. Baz\u0131 hizmetlerin ask\u0131ya al\u0131nmas\u0131, planlanan seferlerin kesilmesi ve gemilerin yeniden y\u00f6nlendirilmesi gibi \u00f6rneklenebilecek, kapasite y\u00f6netimi ve maliyet d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye ili\u015fkin yeni stratejilerle beraber 2020 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n pandemiye ra\u011fmen navlun oranlar\u0131n\u0131n olumlu performans\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6zlendi\u011fi bir y\u0131l oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir. Bu geli\u015fmeler i\u00e7inde \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan konular\u0131 olan s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirlik, dekarbonizasyon ve gemi kirlili\u011finin kontrol\u00fc, \u00f6ncelikler i\u00e7indeki yerini korumaktad\u0131r (UNCTAD, 2020).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yap\u0131lan g\u00f6zlemler deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve ticareti i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da \u00f6zetlenen bir dizi kilit e\u011filimi ortaya koymaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Risk y\u00f6netimi ve diren\u00e7 olu\u015fturman\u0131n \u00f6nde tutuldu\u011fu bir paradigma de\u011fi\u015fimi,<\/li><li>K\u00fcreselle\u015fme modellerinde ve tedarik zinciri tasar\u0131mlar\u0131nda h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f de\u011fi\u015fim,<\/li><li>Yeni t\u00fcketici harcama ve davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131,<\/li><li>Dijitalle\u015fme ve kaydile\u015ftirmenin <em>(dematerialization)<\/em> g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi,<\/li><li>Elektronik ticaret belgelerinin kullan\u0131m\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir art\u0131\u015f,<\/li><li>Standartlar ile farkl\u0131 birimlerin birlikte \u00e7al\u0131\u015fabilirli\u011finin <em>(interoperability)<\/em> daha \u00f6nemli hale gelmesi,<\/li><li>Siber g\u00fcvenli\u011fin \u00f6nem kazanmas\u0131, artan siber-sald\u0131r\u0131lar,<\/li><li>Salg\u0131n\u0131n getirdi\u011fi yeni i\u015fletme ortam\u0131na uyum i\u00e7in deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda d\u00fczenlemeler, potansiyel i\u015f f\u0131rsatlar\u0131na daha fazla ilgi g\u00f6sterilmesi,<\/li><li>K\u00fcresel d\u00fczeyde sistemli ve e\u015fg\u00fcd\u00fcml\u00fc politika yan\u0131tlar\u0131na daha b\u00fcy\u00fck ihtiya\u00e7 (UNCTAD, 2020). <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>2020\u2019de d\u00fcnya ve \u00fclkemiz deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda k\u00fcresel deniz ticareti ve gayri safi has\u0131la b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi birlikte d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir (\u015eekil 1). Salg\u0131n\u0131n 2020&#8217;nin ba\u015flar\u0131nda ba\u015flamas\u0131 ile beraber d\u00fcnya ekonomilerinin seyahat, ula\u015f\u0131m ve t\u00fcketim al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra \u00fcretim faaliyetleri ve tedarik zincirleri \u00fczerindeki olumsuz etkileri bu durgunlu\u011fa neden olmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"607\" height=\"298\" src=\"https:\/\/kalkinmaguncesi.izka.org.tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/image-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-721\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kalkinmaguncesi.izka.org.tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/image-2.png 607w, https:\/\/kalkinmaguncesi.izka.org.tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/image-2-300x147.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 607px) 100vw, 607px\" \/><figcaption>\u015eekil 1: Uluslararas\u0131 deniz ticaretinin ve k\u00fcresel \u00fcretimin geli\u015fimi, 2006\u20132020 (Y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde de\u011fi\u015fimi)<br>Kaynak: UNCTAD, 2020: 3<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Limanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ise 2019 ve 2020 y\u0131llar\u0131 k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda KOVID-19 krizinin liman u\u011frak say\u0131lar\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 etki daha net olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. 2020&#8217;nin ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda \u00e7o\u011fu gemi t\u00fcr\u00fc i\u00e7in daha az liman ziyareti ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f, ilk \u00e7eyrekte s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz ve s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f petrol gaz\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131y\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 ve tankerleri (ya\u015f d\u00f6kme y\u00fck gemileri) art\u0131\u015f kaydetmeye devam etse de, ikinci \u00e7eyrekte t\u00fcm gemi t\u00fcrlerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r (\u015eekil 2). Krizden en \u00e7ok etkilenenler, feribotlar\u0131 ve yolcu ta\u015f\u0131yan di\u011fer gemileri de i\u00e7eren Ro-Ro <em>(roll-on roll-off)<\/em> gemileri olmu\u015ftur (UNCTAD, 2020).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"605\" height=\"323\" src=\"https:\/\/kalkinmaguncesi.izka.org.tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/image-3.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-722\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kalkinmaguncesi.izka.org.tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/image-3.png 605w, https:\/\/kalkinmaguncesi.izka.org.tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/image-3-300x160.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 605px) 100vw, 605px\" \/><figcaption>\u015eekil 2: Se\u00e7ilen gemi t\u00fcrlerinde 2019&#8217;un birinci ve ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fi ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 2020&#8217;nin ilk ve ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fi liman u\u011frak say\u0131s\u0131ndaki k\u00fcresel de\u011fi\u015fim<br>Kaynak: UNCTAD, 2020: 74<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00dclkemizde liman elle\u00e7leme istatistikleri 2019 ve 2020 y\u0131llar\u0131 i\u00e7in aylar baz\u0131nda incelendi\u011finde Kovid-19 s\u00fcrecinin deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6zellikle May\u0131s ay\u0131nda dramatik bi\u00e7imde etkiledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Ula\u015ft\u0131rma ve Altyap\u0131 Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 verilerine g\u00f6re May\u0131s ay\u0131nda 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u0131\u015f ticaret, kabotaj ve transit y\u00fcklerde toplam 41.963.593 ton elle\u00e7leme yap\u0131l\u0131rken 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda ayn\u0131 kapsamda 37.840.418 ton elle\u00e7leme ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filiminin salg\u0131n dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile al\u0131nan \u00f6nlemlerin ve k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n hayata ge\u00e7irildi\u011fi Mart ay\u0131 ile ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131, May\u0131s ay\u0131nda en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ile beraber Haziran ve Temmuz aylar\u0131nda 2019 de\u011ferlerinin yakalanabildi\u011fi, Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda ise d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn tekrar ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir (\u015eekil 3).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"604\" height=\"246\" src=\"https:\/\/kalkinmaguncesi.izka.org.tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/image-4.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-723\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kalkinmaguncesi.izka.org.tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/image-4.png 604w, https:\/\/kalkinmaguncesi.izka.org.tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/image-4-300x122.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 604px) 100vw, 604px\" \/><figcaption>\u015eekil 3: T\u00fcrkiye Limanlar\u0131nda Aylar Baz\u0131nda Toplam Elle\u00e7leme \u0130statistikleri, 2019-2020, ton<br>Kaynak: UAB Denizcilik Genel M\u00fcd\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc verileri<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>En b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f %18,24 ile May\u0131s ay\u0131 transit y\u00fcklerde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f, di\u011fer y\u00fck t\u00fcrleri ile beraber May\u0131s ay\u0131 toplam d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc %49,39 olmu\u015ftur (Tablo 1). Buna g\u00f6re neredeyse yar\u0131 yar\u0131ya bir azalmadan bahsetmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. May\u0131s ay\u0131 t\u00fcm rejimlerde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fanan tek ay olarak da \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Ay<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>D\u0131\u015f Ticaret<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Kabotaj<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Transit<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Toplam Elle\u00e7leme<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ocak<\/td><td>20,55<\/td><td>23,12<\/td><td>-0,78<\/td><td>17,26<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u015eubat<\/td><td>17,41<\/td><td>35,80<\/td><td>23,04<\/td><td>20,30<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Mart<\/td><td>-1,52<\/td><td>19,68<\/td><td>-7,48<\/td><td>-0,27<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nisan<\/td><td>-4,64<\/td><td>-10,24<\/td><td>3,90<\/td><td>-3,93<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>May\u0131s<\/td><td>-7,19<\/td><td>-14,13<\/td><td>-18,24<\/td><td>-9,83<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Haziran<\/td><td>1,37<\/td><td>-5,68<\/td><td>-11,21<\/td><td>-1,52<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Temmuz<\/td><td>5,44<\/td><td>-6,58<\/td><td>-14,96<\/td><td>0,55<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A\u011fustos<\/td><td>2,13<\/td><td>-1,53<\/td><td>4,22<\/td><td>1,98<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Eyl\u00fcl<\/td><td>6,92<\/td><td>-4,25<\/td><td>5,89<\/td><td>5,28<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ekim<\/td><td>0,38<\/td><td>10,16<\/td><td>-3,41<\/td><td>0,97<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Kas\u0131m<\/td><td>-0,73<\/td><td>2,15<\/td><td>-12,16<\/td><td>-2,14<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Aral\u0131k<\/td><td>6,40<\/td><td>23,11<\/td><td>-1,97<\/td><td>6,95<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Toplam<\/td><td>3,50<\/td><td>4,78<\/td><td>-3,43<\/td><td>2,58<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><figcaption>Tablo 1: 2019 ve 2020 Y\u0131llar\u0131n\u0131n Y\u00fck Rejimlerinin Ayl\u0131k Bazda Y\u00fczde De\u011fi\u015fimleri Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 <br>Kaynak: UAB Denizcilik Genel M\u00fcd\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc verilerinden yazar taraf\u0131ndan hesaplanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Ro-Ro ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da durum farkl\u0131 de\u011fildir. 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda 2019\u2019a g\u00f6re yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 d\u00fczenli Ro-Ro hatlar\u0131nda ta\u015f\u0131nan ara\u00e7 (t\u0131r, t\u0131r tankeri, treyler, \u00e7ekici, y\u00fck vagonu) say\u0131lar\u0131 gelen ara\u00e7larda %9, giden ara\u00e7larda %19, toplamda ise %15 dolay\u0131nda azalma g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir (Tablo 2). Kovid-19 \u00f6nlemlerine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak karayollar\u0131ndaki k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar, d\u00fcnyada oldu\u011fu gibi T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de de Ro-Ro ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz etkilemi\u015f, ba\u015fta demiryolu olmak \u00fczere alternatif ta\u015f\u0131ma modlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemini artt\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>&nbsp;T\u00fcr<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2019<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2020<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Y\u00fczde De\u011fi\u015fim<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Gelen Ara\u00e7<\/strong><\/td><td>270.034<\/td><td>244.797<\/td><td>-9,35<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Giden Ara\u00e7<\/strong><\/td><td>321.700<\/td><td>259.955<\/td><td>-19,19<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Toplam<\/strong><\/td><td>591.734<\/td><td>504.752<\/td><td>-14,70<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><figcaption>Tablo 2: Yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 d\u00fczenli Ro-Ro hatlar\u0131nda ta\u015f\u0131nan ara\u00e7 say\u0131lar\u0131 (2019, 2020)* *Ara\u00e7 cinsleri t\u0131r, t\u0131r tankeri, treyler, \u00e7ekici, ve y\u00fck vagonudur.<br>Kaynak: UAB Denizcilik Genel M\u00fcd\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc verileri<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik tahminler<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A\u015f\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015ftirilmesi ve a\u015f\u0131 s\u00fcrecinin ba\u015flamas\u0131 umut verici olmakla birlikte, salg\u0131nda hen\u00fcz sona yakla\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. K\u00fcreselle\u015fme ile birbiriyle daha ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 \u00fclke ekonomileri topyek\u00fbn bir normalle\u015fmeyi daha zor hale getirmektedir.&nbsp; D\u00fcnya ticareti ve bunu olanakl\u0131 k\u0131lan deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc pek \u00e7ok fakt\u00f6r \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde etkileyebilece\u011finden, toparlanman\u0131n zamanlamas\u0131n\u0131 ve \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fini tahmin etmek zordur. UNCTAD tahminleri (UNCTAD, 2020:24), deniz ticaretinin 2021&#8217;de %4,8 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile toparlanma g\u00f6sterece\u011fini ifade etmektedir<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>ING Grup taraf\u0131ndan avro b\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde GSY\u0130H&#8217;n\u0131n tekrar daralaca\u011f\u0131, k\u0131s\u0131tlama \u00f6nlemleri ve a\u015f\u0131laman\u0131n birle\u015fti\u011fi ikinci \u00e7eyrekte avro b\u00f6lgesi ekonomisinin toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 ifade edilmektedir. Yine y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda AB \u00fclkelerine hibe da\u011f\u0131tmaya ba\u015flayacak Kurtarma ve Dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k Fonu\u2019nun toparlanmay\u0131 desteklemesi beklenmektedir. Bu olumlu de\u011ferlendirmelere ra\u011fmen vir\u00fcs\u00fcn mutasyonlar\u0131n\u0131n yaz d\u00f6nemine kadar s\u00fcren kilitlenmeler gerektirebilmesi, mutasyonlara ba\u011fl\u0131 ayarlamalar nedeniyle a\u015f\u0131lar\u0131n yayg\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n uzun s\u00fcrebilmesi ve s\u00fcr\u00fc ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n 2022 veya daha sonras\u0131na kadar gecikebilmesi s\u00f6z konusu olabilecektir. 2021 ve 2022\u2019de bu gibi farkl\u0131 toparlanma senaryolar\u0131 \u00fcretilebilmektedir (\u015eekil 3) (ING, 2021).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"609\" height=\"261\" src=\"https:\/\/kalkinmaguncesi.izka.org.tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/image-5.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-724\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kalkinmaguncesi.izka.org.tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/image-5.png 609w, https:\/\/kalkinmaguncesi.izka.org.tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/image-5-300x129.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 609px) 100vw, 609px\" \/><figcaption>\u015eekil 3: Avro B\u00f6lgesi Ekonomilerinde Gayr\u0131safi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la (2019 4. \u00e7eyrek endeksi 100 olarak al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r)<br>Kaynak: ING, 2021<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>De\u011ferlendirme<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sonu\u00e7 olarak yap\u0131lan tespitler bize, Kovid-19 sonras\u0131 hem hassasiyetlerimizin hem de i\u015flerin devam\u0131 i\u00e7in gerekli olan politika ve aksiyon tasar\u0131m s\u00fcre\u00e7lerimizin tamamen de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015f durumda oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Diren\u00e7li olman\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu d\u00f6nemde UNCTAD Genel Sekreteri Mukhisa Kituyi\u2019nun ba\u015fta al\u0131nt\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z s\u00f6z\u00fcnde oldu\u011fu gibi, k\u00fcresel denizcilik sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne &#8220;tam zaman\u0131nda verimlilik\u201d anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan \u201cher durumda haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmaya\u201d ge\u00e7i\u015f konusunda kilit bir rol d\u00fc\u015fmektedir. \u0130\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz hassas d\u00f6nemde deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile mal ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flanmas\u0131 krizden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in \u00f6nem arz etmektedir. UNCTAD\u2019a (2020) g\u00f6re alt\u0131 alandaki eylemler Kovid-19 sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in stratejik \u00f6nemdedir:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\" type=\"1\"><li>B\u00fcy\u00fcme ve geli\u015fmenin etkin bir \u015fekilde s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilmesi i\u00e7in korumac\u0131 anlay\u0131\u015flardan, gerilim ve k\u0131s\u0131tlamalardan uzak bi\u00e7imde ticaretin desteklenmesi,<\/li><li>S\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirlik ve diren\u00e7 i\u00e7in gerekli unsurlarla beraber k\u00fcreselle\u015fmenin yeniden \u015fekillendirilmesine yard\u0131m edilmesi (\u00d6rn. yak\u0131ndan tedarik yerine \u00e7oklu tedarik y\u00f6ntemlerinin g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde tutulmas\u0131),<\/li><li>Daha fazla teknoloji al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n ve dijitalle\u015fmenin te\u015fviki ile tedarik zincirlerinin ve onlar\u0131n ula\u015f\u0131m a\u011flar\u0131 ile ba\u011flant\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131 hale getirilmesi,<\/li><li>\u0130zleme ve olu\u015fturulacak politika yan\u0131tlar\u0131 i\u00e7in (ger\u00e7ek zamanl\u0131 gemi ve liman trafi\u011fi verileri, erken uyar\u0131 sistemlerinin takibi gibi) verilerin kullan\u0131m\u0131,<\/li><li>\u00c7evik ve dayan\u0131kl\u0131 deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 sistemlerinin etkinle\u015ftirilmesi, (\u00d6rn. i\u015f devaml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in plan ve protokollerin olu\u015fturulmas\u0131),<\/li><li>S\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirlik, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine uyum ve dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k olu\u015fturma konusundaki ivmenin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi, bu politikalar\u0131n toparlanma politikalar\u0131na e\u015flik etmesi.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>K\u00fcresel ekonomik toparlanmada \u00f6nemli role sahip deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve lojistik sekt\u00f6rlerinde de\u011finilen politika de\u011fi\u015fiminin hayata ge\u00e7irilmesi i\u00e7in gerek \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r akt\u00f6rlerinin kendi aras\u0131nda gerekse kamu ile kuracaklar\u0131 i\u015fbirliklerinin \u00f6nemi b\u00fcy\u00fckt\u00fcr. 14 liman\u0131 ile \u00fclkemiz deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen merkezlerinden olan TR31 \u0130zmir B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in de bu y\u00f6nde yap\u0131lacak \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar \u00f6nem arz etmektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Kaynak\u00e7a<br><br><\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/unctad.org\/system\/files\/official-document\/rmt2020_en.pdf\">United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), (2020). Review of Maritime Transport 2020 , 12 Nov 2020<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.hellenicshippingnews.com\/covid-19-and-the-eurozone-economies-in-2021-darkest-before-dawn\/\">ING Grup (2021). Covid-19 and the eurozone economies in 2021: Darkest before dawn? 08.02.2021 tarihli Hellenic Shipping News makalesi (eri\u015fim 20.02.2021)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.7deniz.net\/yazar-koron-virusun-liman-istatistiklerine-yansimalari-225.html\">Esmer, S. (2020). Koronavir\u00fcs\u00fcn liman istatistiklerine yans\u0131malar\u0131. 29.06.2020 tarihli 7deniz makalesi, (eri\u015fim 20.02.2020)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/denizcilikistatistikleri.uab.gov.tr\/yuk-istatistikleri\">T.C. Ula\u015ft\u0131rma ve Altyap\u0131 Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (UAB) Denizcilik Genel M\u00fcd\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u0130statistikleri<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kovid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 pek \u00e7ok sekt\u00f6re oldu\u011fu gibi deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve limanlar i\u00e7in de risk y\u00f6netimini ve diren\u00e7 olu\u015fturmay\u0131 \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. \u0130\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz hassas d\u00f6nemde deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile mal ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flanmas\u0131 krizden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f ve toparlanma i\u00e7in k\u00fcresel boyutta \u00f6nemli bir konu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":725,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[18,15,224,223,16],"class_list":["post-720","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mavi-buyume","tag-covid-19","tag-deniz-tasimaciligi","tag-koronavirus-salgini","tag-kovid-19","tag-limanlar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kalkinmaguncesi.izka.org.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/720","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kalkinmaguncesi.izka.org.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kalkinmaguncesi.izka.org.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kalkinmaguncesi.izka.org.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kalkinmaguncesi.izka.org.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=720"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kalkinmaguncesi.izka.org.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/720\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":726,"href":"https:\/\/kalkinmaguncesi.izka.org.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/720\/revisions\/726"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kalkinmaguncesi.izka.org.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/725"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kalkinmaguncesi.izka.org.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=720"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kalkinmaguncesi.izka.org.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=720"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kalkinmaguncesi.izka.org.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=720"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}